Happy Easter from all of us at Trade & Train!
It was a shorter trading week for us this week with the Easter weekend. The markets were still open but liquidity and general momentum was low on Friday even with Non-Farm Payrolls. Expect the same type of day on Monday 5th April 2021 with a lot of Bank Holidays (see the below).
So what were the key headlines this week? Let’s take a look.
Australian Coronavirus Wages Ended – 100K Jobs Expected To Be Lost
- 100K at risk of losing their jobs
- These losses won’t occur in one hit but will be spread over a number of months
- With participation expected to track sideways, the unemployment rate will drift up to 6.0% in Q2 before the recovery in the second half of the year takes the unemployment rate back down to 5.7%.
Treasuries Selloff Looks Poised To Extend Further
Oil climbed as OPEC+ members make statements ahead of closed meeting
The comments generally highlight discipline
- Saudi oil min:OPEC should continue with flexible approach
- Saudi oil min: “Until evidence of recovery is undeniable, we should maintain this cautious stance”
- Novak: We have to monitor vaccine pace and lockdowns
- Novak: Important not to let the oil market overhead or be undersupplied
- Angloa minister highlighted need to caution
US March non-farm payrolls +916K vs +660K expected
- Prior was 379K
- Unemployment rate 6.0% vs 6.0% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 6.2%
- Participation rate 61.5% vs 61.5% expected (was 62.8% pre-pandemic)
- Prior participation rate 61.4%
- Underemployment rate 10.7% vs 11.1% prior
- Average hourly earnings -0.1% m/m vs +0.1% expected
- Average hourly earnings +4.2% y/y vs +4.5% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.9 vs 34.7 expected
- Two month net revision +156K
- Change in private payrolls +780K vs +643K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +53K vs +35K expected
- Long-term unemployed at 4.2m vs 4.1m prior
- The employment-population ratio, at 57.8% vs 57.6% prior
- Full report